FORECASTED WINS BY STATE (hover for more info)
FORECAST CHANCES
Fmr. VP Joe Biden
279
President Donald Trump
259
UPDATED AUG. 14TH 08:40PST
This forecast model inputs three parameters for each competition: an average of state and national polls, a proprietary index which weighs those polls on accuracy, and finally an additional weight based on the current standing of the 13 Keys.
State
▲EC Votes
▲Democrat
▲Republican
▲3rd Party
▲Margin
▲Alabama
9
39.71%
57.34%
2.95%
Trump +17.63%
Alaska
3
44.16%
52.91%
2.93%
Trump +8.75%
Arizona
11
46.13%
50.81%
3.06%
Trump +4.68%
Arkansas
6
46.07%
50.83%
3.1%
Trump +4.76%
California
55
64.64%
32.19%
3.17%
Biden +32.45%
Colorado
9
56.3%
40.37%
3.33%
Biden +15.93%
Connecticut
7
62.17%
35.19%
2.64%
Biden +26.98%
District of Columbia
3
93.49%
3.88%
2.63%
Biden +89.61%
Delaware
3
58.71%
38.44%
2.85%
Biden +20.27%
Florida
29
46.33%
50.84%
2.83%
Trump +4.51%
Georgia
16
45.91%
51.2%
2.89%
Trump +5.29%
Hawaii
4
69.56%
27.56%
2.88%
Biden +42.0%
Idaho
4
29.15%
67.7%
3.15%
Trump +38.55%
Illinois
20
60.04%
37.01%
2.95%
Biden +23.03%
Indiana
11
41.71%
55.02%
3.27%
Trump +13.31%
Iowa
6
48.41%
48.8%
2.79%
Trump +0.39%
Kansas
6
41.14%
55.68%
3.18%
Trump +14.54%
Kentucky
8
37.52%
59.43%
3.05%
Trump +21.91%
Louisiana
8
37.5%
59.74%
2.76%
Trump +22.24%
Maine
2
55.77%
41.27%
2.96%
Biden +14.5%
Maine 1st District
1
61.59%
35.36%
3.05%
Biden +26.23%
Maine 2nd District
1
46.73%
49.87%
3.4%
Trump +3.14%
Maryland
10
62.4%
34.53%
3.07%
Biden +27.87%
Massachusetts
11
67.4%
29.56%
3.04%
Biden +37.84%
Michigan
16
49.24%
47.89%
2.87%
Biden +1.35%
Minnesota
10
51.46%
45.39%
3.15%
Biden +6.07%
Mississippi
6
43.09%
53.73%
3.18%
Trump +10.64%
Missouri
10
44.67%
52.31%
3.02%
Trump +7.64%
Montana
3
44.33%
52.82%
2.85%
Trump +8.49%
Nebraska
2
32.66%
64.3%
3.04%
Trump +31.64%
Nebraska 1st District
1
29.6%
67.63%
2.77%
Trump +38.03%
Nebraska 2nd District
1
51.53%
45.39%
3.08%
Biden +6.14%
Nebraska 3rd District
1
20.17%
76.69%
3.14%
Trump +56.52%
Nevada
6
53.37%
43.41%
3.22%
Biden +9.96%
New Hampshire
4
53.56%
43.51%
2.93%
Biden +10.05%
New Jersey
14
60.67%
36.07%
3.26%
Biden +24.6%
New Mexico
5
56.28%
40.58%
3.14%
Biden +15.7%
New York
29
63.07%
34.05%
2.88%
Biden +29.02%
North Carolina
15
47.89%
48.73%
3.38%
Trump +0.84%
North Dakota
3
39.48%
57.57%
2.95%
Trump +18.09%
Ohio
18
46.11%
50.95%
2.94%
Trump +4.84%
Oklahoma
7
34.75%
62.3%
2.95%
Trump +27.55%
Oregon
7
63.19%
33.93%
2.88%
Biden +29.26%
Pennsylvania
20
49.9%
47.02%
3.08%
Biden +2.88%
Rhode Island
4
61.59%
34.86%
3.55%
Biden +26.73%
South Carolina
9
44.2%
52.84%
2.96%
Trump +8.64%
South Dakota
3
36.45%
60.71%
2.84%
Trump +24.26%
Tennessee
11
40.92%
55.68%
3.4%
Trump +14.76%
Texas
38
45.52%
51.77%
2.71%
Trump +6.25%
Utah
6
42.68%
53.82%
3.5%
Trump +11.14%
Vermont
3
61.83%
35.29%
2.88%
Biden +26.54%
Virginia
13
55.12%
41.92%
2.96%
Biden +13.2%
Washington
12
64.81%
32.57%
2.62%
Biden +32.24%
West Virginia
5
21.06%
75.69%
3.25%
Trump +54.63%
Wisconsin
10
49.46%
47.39%
3.15%
Biden +2.07%
Wyoming
3
20.71%
76.23%
3.06%
Trump +55.52%