FORECASTED WINS BY STATE (hover for more info)

FORECAST CHANCES

Fmr. VP Joe Biden

279

President Donald Trump

259

UPDATED AUG. 14TH 08:40PST

This forecast model inputs three parameters for each competition: an average of state and national polls, a proprietary index which weighs those polls on accuracy, and finally an additional weight based on the current standing of the 13 Keys.

State
EC Votes
Democrat
Republican
3rd Party
Margin
Alabama
9
39.71%
57.34%
2.95%
Trump +17.63%
Alaska
3
44.16%
52.91%
2.93%
Trump +8.75%
Arizona
11
46.13%
50.81%
3.06%
Trump +4.68%
Arkansas
6
46.07%
50.83%
3.1%
Trump +4.76%
California
55
64.64%
32.19%
3.17%
Biden +32.45%
Colorado
9
56.3%
40.37%
3.33%
Biden +15.93%
Connecticut
7
62.17%
35.19%
2.64%
Biden +26.98%
District of Columbia
3
93.49%
3.88%
2.63%
Biden +89.61%
Delaware
3
58.71%
38.44%
2.85%
Biden +20.27%
Florida
29
46.33%
50.84%
2.83%
Trump +4.51%
Georgia
16
45.91%
51.2%
2.89%
Trump +5.29%
Hawaii
4
69.56%
27.56%
2.88%
Biden +42.0%
Idaho
4
29.15%
67.7%
3.15%
Trump +38.55%
Illinois
20
60.04%
37.01%
2.95%
Biden +23.03%
Indiana
11
41.71%
55.02%
3.27%
Trump +13.31%
Iowa
6
48.41%
48.8%
2.79%
Trump +0.39%
Kansas
6
41.14%
55.68%
3.18%
Trump +14.54%
Kentucky
8
37.52%
59.43%
3.05%
Trump +21.91%
Louisiana
8
37.5%
59.74%
2.76%
Trump +22.24%
Maine
2
55.77%
41.27%
2.96%
Biden +14.5%
Maine 1st District
1
61.59%
35.36%
3.05%
Biden +26.23%
Maine 2nd District
1
46.73%
49.87%
3.4%
Trump +3.14%
Maryland
10
62.4%
34.53%
3.07%
Biden +27.87%
Massachusetts
11
67.4%
29.56%
3.04%
Biden +37.84%
Michigan
16
49.24%
47.89%
2.87%
Biden +1.35%
Minnesota
10
51.46%
45.39%
3.15%
Biden +6.07%
Mississippi
6
43.09%
53.73%
3.18%
Trump +10.64%
Missouri
10
44.67%
52.31%
3.02%
Trump +7.64%
Montana
3
44.33%
52.82%
2.85%
Trump +8.49%
Nebraska
2
32.66%
64.3%
3.04%
Trump +31.64%
Nebraska 1st District
1
29.6%
67.63%
2.77%
Trump +38.03%
Nebraska 2nd District
1
51.53%
45.39%
3.08%
Biden +6.14%
Nebraska 3rd District
1
20.17%
76.69%
3.14%
Trump +56.52%
Nevada
6
53.37%
43.41%
3.22%
Biden +9.96%
New Hampshire
4
53.56%
43.51%
2.93%
Biden +10.05%
New Jersey
14
60.67%
36.07%
3.26%
Biden +24.6%
New Mexico
5
56.28%
40.58%
3.14%
Biden +15.7%
New York
29
63.07%
34.05%
2.88%
Biden +29.02%
North Carolina
15
47.89%
48.73%
3.38%
Trump +0.84%
North Dakota
3
39.48%
57.57%
2.95%
Trump +18.09%
Ohio
18
46.11%
50.95%
2.94%
Trump +4.84%
Oklahoma
7
34.75%
62.3%
2.95%
Trump +27.55%
Oregon
7
63.19%
33.93%
2.88%
Biden +29.26%
Pennsylvania
20
49.9%
47.02%
3.08%
Biden +2.88%
Rhode Island
4
61.59%
34.86%
3.55%
Biden +26.73%
South Carolina
9
44.2%
52.84%
2.96%
Trump +8.64%
South Dakota
3
36.45%
60.71%
2.84%
Trump +24.26%
Tennessee
11
40.92%
55.68%
3.4%
Trump +14.76%
Texas
38
45.52%
51.77%
2.71%
Trump +6.25%
Utah
6
42.68%
53.82%
3.5%
Trump +11.14%
Vermont
3
61.83%
35.29%
2.88%
Biden +26.54%
Virginia
13
55.12%
41.92%
2.96%
Biden +13.2%
Washington
12
64.81%
32.57%
2.62%
Biden +32.24%
West Virginia
5
21.06%
75.69%
3.25%
Trump +54.63%
Wisconsin
10
49.46%
47.39%
3.15%
Biden +2.07%
Wyoming
3
20.71%
76.23%
3.06%
Trump +55.52%