FORECASTED WINS BY STATE (hover for more info)

FORECAST CHANCES

Fmr. VP Joe Biden

357

President Donald Trump

181

UPDATED JUN. 24TH 11:30PST

This forecast model inputs three parameters for each competition: an average of state and national polls, a proprietary index which weighs those polls on accuracy, and finally an additional weight based on the current standing of the 13 Keys.

State
EC Votes
Democrat
Republican
3rd Party
Margin
Alabama
9
36.91%
60.03%
3.06%
Trump +23.12%
Alaska
3
37.73%
58.33%
3.94%
Trump +20.6%
Arizona
11
50.35%
46.31%
3.34%
Biden +4.04%
Arkansas
6
33.6%
62.79%
3.61%
Trump +29.19%
California
55
62.5%
34.5%
3.0%
Biden +28.0%
Colorado
9
58.63%
38.11%
3.26%
Biden +20.52%
Connecticut
7
55.58%
41.45%
2.97%
Biden +14.13%
District of Columbia
3
92.89%
4.25%
2.86%
Biden +88.64%
Delaware
3
58.29%
38.98%
2.73%
Biden +19.31%
Florida
29
49.44%
47.3%
3.26%
Biden +2.14%
Georgia
16
47.77%
48.98%
3.25%
Trump +1.21%
Hawaii
4
67.75%
29.09%
3.16%
Biden +38.66%
Idaho
4
29.56%
67.33%
3.11%
Trump +37.77%
Illinois
20
59.65%
37.27%
3.08%
Biden +22.38%
Indiana
11
42.3%
54.4%
3.3%
Trump +12.1%
Iowa
6
48.82%
48.33%
2.85%
Biden +0.49%
Kansas
6
39.62%
57.12%
3.26%
Trump +17.5%
Kentucky
8
38.2%
58.69%
3.11%
Trump +20.49%
Louisiana
8
38.01%
59.16%
2.83%
Trump +21.15%
Maine
2
52.16%
45.14%
2.7%
Biden +7.02%
Maine 1st District
1
54.46%
42.57%
2.97%
Biden +11.89%
Maine 2nd District
1
47.32%
49.61%
3.07%
Trump +2.29%
Maryland
10
62.85%
34.49%
2.66%
Biden +28.36%
Massachusetts
11
67.44%
29.71%
2.85%
Biden +37.73%
Michigan
16
50.24%
46.87%
2.89%
Biden +3.37%
Minnesota
10
51.3%
45.55%
3.15%
Biden +5.75%
Mississippi
6
40.57%
55.82%
3.61%
Trump +15.25%
Missouri
10
45.26%
51.18%
3.56%
Trump +5.92%
Montana
3
41.95%
54.45%
3.6%
Trump +12.5%
Nebraska
2
33.58%
63.2%
3.22%
Trump +29.62%
Nebraska 1st District
1
27.7%
69.47%
2.83%
Trump +41.77%
Nebraska 2nd District
1
46.4%
50.7%
2.9%
Trump +4.3%
Nebraska 3rd District
1
20.71%
76.38%
2.91%
Trump +55.67%
Nevada
6
49.74%
47.2%
3.06%
Biden +2.54%
New Hampshire
4
51.9%
45.07%
3.03%
Biden +6.83%
New Jersey
14
58.57%
38.54%
2.89%
Biden +20.03%
New Mexico
5
52.81%
44.33%
2.86%
Biden +8.48%
New York
29
61.83%
35.4%
2.77%
Biden +26.43%
North Carolina
15
48.88%
48.14%
2.98%
Biden +0.74%
North Dakota
3
32.64%
64.51%
2.85%
Trump +31.87%
Ohio
18
50.51%
46.52%
2.97%
Biden +3.99%
Oklahoma
7
34.08%
63.04%
2.88%
Trump +28.96%
Oregon
7
63.15%
33.98%
2.87%
Biden +29.17%
Pennsylvania
20
52.12%
44.95%
2.93%
Biden +7.17%
Rhode Island
4
60.8%
36.16%
3.04%
Biden +24.64%
South Carolina
9
40.93%
55.61%
3.46%
Trump +14.68%
South Dakota
3
36.47%
60.8%
2.73%
Trump +24.33%
Tennessee
11
41.13%
56.09%
2.78%
Trump +14.96%
Texas
38
47.61%
49.32%
3.07%
Trump +1.71%
Utah
6
41.89%
54.84%
3.27%
Trump +12.95%
Vermont
3
62.86%
34.54%
2.6%
Biden +28.32%
Virginia
13
52.33%
44.27%
3.4%
Biden +8.06%
Washington
12
63.09%
33.78%
3.13%
Biden +29.31%
West Virginia
5
21.25%
75.47%
3.28%
Trump +54.22%
Wisconsin
10
51.97%
45.18%
2.85%
Biden +6.79%
Wyoming
3
20.63%
76.07%
3.3%
Trump +55.44%