13 KEYS PREDICTION
Developed by Professor Allan Lichtman in 1981, The 13 Keys are statements that favor victory (in the popular vote count) for the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote; when six or more are false, the challenging party is predicted to win the popular vote. We have labeled how each key currently favors each party, with true represented by the GOP and false with the DNC logo respectively.
1) Party Mandate:
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4) Third party:
There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5) Short-term economy:
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6) Long-term economy:
Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7) Policy change:
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8) Social unrest:
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10) Foreign/military failure:
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11) Foreign/military success:
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12) Incumbent charisma:
The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13) Challenger charisma:
The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
UPDATED MAR. 23RD 14:17PST